Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd68c783ae976417aecb64e69116cdd97313219e1e02863b06ea63fd56237392d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 13,081$6,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,550.81 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 55c | 6,125$3,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,369.98 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 1,675$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.76 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 1,667$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.05 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 65c | 1,541$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…8a29backed Over | 24c | 1,500$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.38 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 56c | 1,164$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.79 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Over | 27c | 750$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 46c | 650$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 37c | 600$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 34c | 584.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 46c | 543.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 64c | 499.98$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.98 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 62c | 432.26$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Over | 46c | 432$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.87 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 35c | 299.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 271.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.51 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…54cbbacked Over | 37c | 267.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 47c | 266$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 48c | 259.49$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.33 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 51c | 255$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 55c | 202.46$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 60c | 200.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…d88fbacked Under | 51c | 197.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 66.2%88 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd25e…f458backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…65babacked Over | 45c | 113.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 37c | 109.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 70.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…f74cbacked Over | 36c | 63.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Over | 64c | 62.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 41c | 60.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 36c | 57.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 33c | 51.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 35c | 44.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed Under | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 42c | 40.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…8b6abacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a72…ce3ebacked Over | 64c | 30.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 38c | 27.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Under | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 66c | 22.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…dcaabacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5this page
- US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.