Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858823dea0911dea39d5e050ec8acbb79f7fdfbad734bd6c62ced69acf4e0f46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 28c | 2,113$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.76 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 72c | 1,782$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.27 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 29c | 1,076$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.26 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 4c | 600.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 72c | 434.5$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.66 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 76c | 336.39$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 71c | 176$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 13c | 115.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 71c | 95.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…0769backed Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 30.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 79c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…097ebacked Under | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.