Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a4733579341e8d83db10e00b109e8f3cf291f70162ddd54e7d317d072d48b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 368.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 13c | 342.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 318.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 8c | 258.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.28 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 70c | 191.6$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 59c | 188.68$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 8c | 153.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.37 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 14c | 152.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 143.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 135.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 10c | 127.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.52 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 20c | 70.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 68.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 27c | 66.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 63.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 52c | 54.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 57c | 50.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 58c | 49.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 43c | 45.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 76c | 44.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 40.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 64c | 40.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 58c | 37.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 74c | 20.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 19.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.