NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85c8fd0597779f622ea83a652f1654efa406ca08f69f3b9fece1775728e3f610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Capitals, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jets | 64c | 387$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.47 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Capitals | 35c | 342$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Capitals | 36c | 281$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Capitals | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Capitals | 37c | 91.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jets | 63c | 77.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Jets | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…f70abacked Jets | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Capitals | 34c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…f95dbacked Jets | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Capitals | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Jets | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Jets | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Jets | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Jets vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Jets vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Jets vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.