NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd354291d8cdbcf39d72de8c4832c71d13dc960467e899f362ce781b9bb90d93b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 60c | 30,000$18,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,000 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 40c | 13,372$5,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,337.41 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 10,507$4,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,204.98 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 40c | 5,186$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.4 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 39c | 2,145$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.87 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 39c | 1,829$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.54 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 61c | 1,095$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.05 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Over | 60c | 1,033$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.33 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 40c | 875$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…849ebacked Over | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 40c | 444$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 38c | 274.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…82f1backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…697abacked Over | 62c | 160.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Over | 59c | 101.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 61c | 78.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 41c | 67.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Over | 60c | 66.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 40c | 58.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 59c | 57.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 273 | 34.4%94 W · 179 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2aecbacked Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 41c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 40c | 37.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…439dbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Over | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…67e6backed Over | 62c | 25.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c5…cd3cbacked Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…be41backed Over | 61c | 20.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…0a1cbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Jets vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Jets vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.