Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85ce89c6aefa362b52b00a9d611d1051799ac2db5180a97b13044e264b8459bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,826 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 61c | 4,055$2,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,471.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 2,853$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.01 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 2,820$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.72 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 38c | 2,587$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.02 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 39c | 640$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.4 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 39c | 600$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +142%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 61c | 464.56$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.38 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Under | 60c | 444.64$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 285$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.7 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Over | 39c | 243.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…c739backed Under | 62c | 225.81$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 31c | 221.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.81 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 40c | 190.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 39c | 183.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 40c | 169.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 62c | 169$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 40c | 167.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 80c | 160.97$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 20c | 142.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 31c | 110.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Over | 39c | 108.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Over | 41c | 103$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 62c | 103$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 73cpaid | -42%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 40c | 93.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd066…9eecbacked Over | 39c | 63.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 77c | 50.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 60c | 49.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 45.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 47c | 44.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Over | 41c | 41.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 51c | 38.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 39c | 37.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 39c | 36.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…c12ebacked Over | 39c | 30.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 62c | 21.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…2870backed Under | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 62c | 17.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-1.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.