Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15c086a74cd24227bf9b64881ed7adb3bb12f0919a4585898c98e4efc979d464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,930 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 22c | 1,006$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.77 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 19c | 978.94$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.97 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 923.96$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.16 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 21c | 749.98$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.48 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88cd…3f5bbacked Under | 73c | 546.72$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…1c57backed Over | 27c | 546.72$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 78c | 314.33$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.62 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 79c | 268.56$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.16 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 256$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.74 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 79c | 207.87$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 78c | 199.9$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.92 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 22c | 171.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 22c | 163.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 157.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 78c | 127.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 22c | 125$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Over | 49c | 107$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 78c | 86.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 21c | 49.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 21c | 47.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 30c | 39.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 69c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 54c | 32.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 33c | 31.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…10b2backed Over | 50c | 29.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 79c | 20.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…babfbacked Under | 79c | 13.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Under | 78c | 13.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-1.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.