NFL · resolved market
Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the first quarter of Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85f97463c53731e1357759bae4533c4b25a02fa9d2d955efbf6f2f37365a4bb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eaglesof Eagles, Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Chiefs | 49c | 130.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Chiefs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Eagles | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Eagles | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Eagles | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Chiefs | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…dfefbacked Eagles | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -6.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…027dbacked Chiefs | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…08f4backed Eagles | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Eagles | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Chiefs | 49c | 34.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed Eagles | 47c | 27.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0f…11f6backed Eagles | 51c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cee…c138backed Chiefs | 53c | 20.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…1f34backed Eagles | 51c | 20.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…23cfbacked Chiefs | 52c | 20.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Chiefs | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaf…478bbacked Eagles | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe057…8da0backed Chiefs | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…553abacked Eagles | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af0…ed50backed Chiefs | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.