Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86275f38d57bd1eaf18ce13802de08189424ff6a9a61ee6ac41b0959d3d6d8ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked No | 79c | 450$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 59c | 392.73$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.38 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed No | 63c | 340$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.17 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 176$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 153.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 72c | 116$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 23c | 109.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 42c | 81.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 43c | 81.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 78.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 71.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 70.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 64.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 45c | 62.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 49c | 61.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 57.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 56c | 53.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 50.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 50.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…1b1ebacked No | 44c | 39.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 44c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 50c | 29.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 69c | 29.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…43dcbacked Yes | 48c | 28.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 58c | 25.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 70c | 22.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 21.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 52c | 20.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 18.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 17.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 72c | 15.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.