Serie A · resolved market
Inter vs. Fiorentina: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8647f5d96268c513ca8b83f24cc3d3b8cd314cb9d4b1fdea060b35a5007fdca6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Under | 41c | 10,358$4,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,213.91 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 10,023$5,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,165 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 45c | 1,949$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.86 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 51c | 935.06$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.09 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 60c | 839.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.16 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 56c | 621$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.03 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 60c | 375.38$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 38c | 287.61$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 60c | 257.25$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…25c2backed Under | 39c | 255.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Over | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…e80bbacked Over | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 42c | 109.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 51c | 100.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 62c | 98.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 44c | 79.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 61.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 42c | 46.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…0231backed Over | 43c | 46.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…4a7abacked Under | 45c | 43.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Over | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 116 | 66.4%77 W · 39 L | +14.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 54c | 33.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…addabacked Over | 57c | 29.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…bb61backed Over | 58c | 26.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed Over | 58c | 25.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…3c19backed Over | 62c | 24.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 57c | 22.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…45bbbacked Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae0…c81abacked Over | 58c | 20.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba7…8d2ebacked Over | 58c | 19.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3f…753cbacked Over | 58c | 17.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Inter vs. Fiorentina: O/U 2.5this page
- Inter vs. Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Inter (-1.5)Inter won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.