Tennis · resolved market
Joao Fonseca vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86548b1cb742e72ec4d5a834545b5bacd66c1acc1d30fbaf8ceb8369dd6d29c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d0a…dda0backed Over 2.5 | 55c | 6,877$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,127.51 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over 2.5 | 55c | 4,771$2,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,147.58 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 47c | 2,932$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.22 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…caf5backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 1,265$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.44 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 953.44$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.39 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under 2.5 | 43c | 705.21$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.24 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 597.5$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.06 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under 2.5 | 43c | 462.5$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.88 | 236 | 53.4%126 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 453.33$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.93 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Under 2.5 | 43c | 449.21$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.16 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…1397backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 345.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.07 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Under 2.5 | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…148dbacked Over 2.5 | 55c | 220.27$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Under 2.5 | 35c | 144$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bb…f258backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 115.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 99.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…ca71backed Over 2.5 | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…1ee1backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 82.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 78.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Under 2.5 | 37c | 77.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…4fb2backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 76.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under 2.5 | 35c | 72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under 2.5 | 35c | 72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…3e48backed Under 2.5 | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 150 | 58.7%88 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Under 2.5 | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Under 2.5 | 41c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under 2.5 | 43c | 57.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over 2.5 | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Under 2.5 | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 39.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87e…606dbacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 37.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…acbdbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 34.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Under 2.5 | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…e98cbacked Over 2.5 | 56c | 28.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 164 | 59.1%97 W · 67 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked Over 2.5 | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Over 2.5 | 54c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 246 | 38.2%94 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under 2.5 | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Joao Fonseca vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben SheltonBen Shelton won
- Fonseca vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs SheltonShelton won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5)Shelton won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.