Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Shelton
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafe402496ae57baad4a389d74fce9629e51009200f7a9664d7bc7493533af8ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sheltonof Fonseca, Shelton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2e9…a86ebacked Shelton | 47c | 1,020$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Shelton | 36c | 899.02$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.37 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Fonseca | 64c | 894.26$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.18 | 228 | 56.1%128 W · 100 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Fonseca | 52c | 634.27$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.99 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Fonseca | 66c | 504.36$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.62 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fonseca | 53c | 443.33$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…4fb2backed Fonseca | 60c | 432.63$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.58 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shelton | 34c | 400$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Shelton | 42c | 126.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f96…ad0fbacked Fonseca | 62c | 117.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Shelton | 45c | 108.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Shelton | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 138 | 30.4%42 W · 96 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Fonseca | 59c | 89.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fe…09c9backed Shelton | 42c | 87.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 220 | 49.5%109 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Fonseca | 67c | 78.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…3e48backed Fonseca | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 150 | 58.7%88 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Shelton | 45c | 38.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…323abacked Shelton | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 136 | 40.4%55 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Sheltonthis page
- BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben SheltonBen Shelton won
- Fonseca vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5)Shelton won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.