Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf07c6a3056946889a190dd05390168b96e62ad75367d51b3e2485bfb9f81b2f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sheltonof Fonseca, Shelton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2e9…a86ebacked Shelton | 63c | 1,395$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.27 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fonseca | 37c | 779.1$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.68 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…62dcbacked Fonseca | 47c | 512.97$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.08 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Fonseca | 49c | 490.96$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.87 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Fonseca | 45c | 417.74$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Shelton | 61c | 347.29$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.64 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Shelton | 57c | 295.13$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 389 | 55.3%215 W · 174 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fonseca | 43c | 223$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Shelton | 62c | 220.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 45 | 84.4%38 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…7848backed Shelton | 62c | 214.35$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fonseca | 39c | 204.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f96…ad0fbacked Fonseca | 42c | 199.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.86 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Shelton | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ec…060bbacked Shelton | 61c | 160.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Fonseca | 37c | 146.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Shelton | 54c | 125$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Fonseca | 39c | 123.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed Shelton | 64c | 114.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Shelton | 57c | 114.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Shelton | 61c | 104.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b3…aaaebacked Shelton | 61c | 100.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Shelton | 61c | 79.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Shelton | 59c | 69.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 264 | 57.6%152 W · 112 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Shelton | 51c | 68.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Fonseca | 43c | 67.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Fonseca | 39c | 64.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Fonseca | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Fonseca | 39c | 59.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fonseca | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Fonseca | 38c | 47.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Fonseca | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…574bbacked Shelton | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed Shelton | 61c | 40.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Fonseca | 43c | 39.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…fe20backed Shelton | 68c | 39.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shelton | 55c | 36.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Shelton | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x112e…0d1fbacked Shelton | 61c | 31.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 349 | 65%227 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed Shelton | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Shelton | 57c | 28.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Shelton | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…200abacked Shelton | 63c | 16.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5)this page
- BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben SheltonBen Shelton won
- Fonseca vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs SheltonShelton won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.