World Politics · resolved market
Will TS-LKD win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x865c9e6510948828f661e5ff1febf597002bd879bb81bd9f98b1e4a15c419b1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 11c | 6,841$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.65 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 5,783$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 14c | 1,651$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,478$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.2 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…d868backed Yes | 6c | 1,277$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 7c | 1,143$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 958.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 10c | 939.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 10c | 917.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed No | 66c | 800$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 6c | 717.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…73f9backed Yes | 22c | 544.84$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…267fbacked Yes | 16c | 479.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa5…7e01backed Yes | 60c | 401.32$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed Yes | 7c | 304.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 259.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 133.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…ebc2backed Yes | 10c | 132$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…6a3bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5982…fa1ebacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…12c3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…43f5backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TS-LKD win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?this page
- Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?Yes won
- Will LVŽS win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?No won
- Will NA win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.