World Politics · resolved market
Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e9488d4918b789209f66a1dbe5fad060569b390325ada56ccbf25fb857188c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 5c | 16,594$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.49 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 7c | 14,909$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.06 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 3c | 7,002$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.23 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 1,678$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 12c | 1,307$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…2b79backed No | 15c | 1,046$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 15c | 1,002$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.1 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…f2a8backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked No | 17c | 670.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…267fbacked No | 13c | 555.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 11c | 529.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 7c | 521.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked No | 7c | 518.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…86aabacked No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fa…34fdbacked No | 13c | 444.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 15c | 431.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 16c | 402.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 401.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…59d4backed No | 19c | 258.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 11c | 249.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 79c | 222.39$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 19c | 157.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 10c | 140.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…3c0cbacked No | 13c | 111.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…6a3bbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b168backed No | 22c | 75.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 15c | 68.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…6602backed Yes | 79c | 63.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd7…5a05backed Yes | 75c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LSDP win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?this page
- Will LVŽS win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?No won
- Will NA win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?No won
- Will TS-LKD win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.