Wolves vs. Crystal Palace: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8671b337996694282e389f3275409e68d8b96211b3a820891d1b25647ff6a611

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,370 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Under	49c	9,816$4,813 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,003.19	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Over	51c	9,804$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	99	46.5%46 W · 53 L	-6.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under	53c	8,000$4,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,760	386	49%189 W · 197 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	47c	7,757$3,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,656.03	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under	52c	2,727$1,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,317.1	240	47.5%114 W · 126 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ab…d376backed Over	47c	2,656$1,248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,248.24	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0323…77e4backed Under	53c	2,366$1,254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,111.94	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a3…4ebebacked Over	47c	2,267$1,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,062.9	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Over	48c	1,758$844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$843.89	138	52.2%72 W · 66 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08dd…55b0backed Under	54c	1,188$641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$546.37	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	52c	1,098$572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525.99	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under	55c	500$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225	149	43%64 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	24c	439$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.49	202	39.6%80 W · 122 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	198	26.3%52 W · 146 L	-14.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over	50c	225$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	86	43%37 W · 49 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under	50c	203.04$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.83	1,224	40%490 W · 734 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Under	50c	170$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.4wins	-0.21per pick	52cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Over	48c	125.42$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.2	495	44.2%219 W · 276 L	-20.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	47c	107.62$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.72	180	59.4%107 W · 73 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…97b3backed Over	49c	102.24$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	47cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Under	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	24c	75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	614	41.2%253 W · 361 L	-27.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x727c…c1f5backed Over	47c	63.83$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	46c	57.4$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	201	50.2%101 W · 100 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	58c	52.3$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.01	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47d3…4255backed Over	49c	51.41$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.19	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Under	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	282	46.1%130 W · 152 L	-12.2wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Over	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	86	46.5%40 W · 46 L	+7.7wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c40…0c8fbacked Over	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-5.8wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Over	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Over	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	428	62.4%267 W · 161 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b5f…5e78backed Over	45c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a26…7300backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Under	51c	27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.23	85	63.5%54 W · 31 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under	52c	20.83$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	834	59.4%495 W · 339 L	+25.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	126	23%29 W · 97 L	-11.6wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	120	50%60 W · 60 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Wolves vs. Crystal Palace: O/U 2.5this page
Spread: Crystal Palace (-1.5)Crystal Palace won
Wolves vs. Crystal Palace: Both Teams to ScoreNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Wolves vs. Crystal Palace: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event