Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Houston Cougars (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x868c034edbc3d2ef45dac1e4569d694435e0b7e7a0c2a3b61bc7657ec458104a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Cougarsof Houston Cougars, TCU Horned Frogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed TCU Horned Frogs | 48c | 9,000$4,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,319.99 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Houston Cougars | 52c | 4,096$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.89 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Houston Cougars | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.31 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Houston Cougars | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Houston Cougars | 52c | 868.81$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.05 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Houston Cougars | 52c | 642.72$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.19 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Houston Cougars | 52c | 525$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 46c | 480.81$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.23 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Houston Cougars | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Houston Cougars | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed TCU Horned Frogs | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…8a63backed Houston Cougars | 52c | 194.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Houston Cougars | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed TCU Horned Frogs | 48c | 174.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 161$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Houston Cougars | 49c | 131$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Houston Cougars | 53c | 104.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Houston Cougars | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…462fbacked Houston Cougars | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…e89bbacked Houston Cougars | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 169 | 52.7%89 W · 80 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e30…50dcbacked Houston Cougars | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Houston Cougars | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Cougars (-7.5)this page
- Houston Cougars vs. TCU Horned FrogsHouston Cougars won
- Houston Cougars vs. TCU Horned Frogs: O/U 135.5Over won
- Houston Cougars vs. TCU Horned Frogs: O/U 137.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Cougars (-5.5)Houston Cougars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.