Movies · resolved market
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x869bfaa8736b3b7628b0e412b17f69a57776cbee1bd8c8ef1d42be0dd23edd85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc199…c67cbacked No | 4c | 9,090$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 6c | 2,661$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 2c | 1,208$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 2c | 1,027$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 2c | 979.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 2c | 868.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 827.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed No | 3c | 540.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 2c | 488.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 3c | 470.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 4c | 465.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 3c | 408.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Untold: Jail Blazers" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.