Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86a641c2b2c52b0d586a511835921f80832a55637a64683cda623947d4df7200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 78c | 1,259$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…7318backed Yes | 22c | 929.21$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 26c | 781.15$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.75 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd6…37fabacked Yes | 3c | 700.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed No | 74c | 626$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.85 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 5c | 305.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 6c | 249.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 22c | 241.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 230.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 26c | 188.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…fb66backed Yes | 25c | 185.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 22c | 171.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 24c | 166$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 155.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 141.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 135.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 11c | 117.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 115.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 77c | 111.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 17c | 107.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 11c | 103.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 98.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 25c | 96.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 77c | 92.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…6278backed Yes | 14c | 78.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 15c | 76.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 21c | 75.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb5…57eabacked Yes | 21c | 60.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 78c | 49.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 23c | 46.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…1096backed Yes | 23c | 45.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 40.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 76c | 23.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 17.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 78c | 17.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 73c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 77c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.