Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cb5647a3f0206a4a062dfcf907b17f9223f90fb0612b28a51b7c940822b9723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 642.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 24c | 641.24$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.65 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 501.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 321.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 314.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 265.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 211.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 26c | 207.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 77c | 198.38$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 189.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 18c | 178.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 172.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 27c | 164.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 35c | 161.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 9c | 144$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 34c | 143.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 135.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 41c | 123.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 117.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 113.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 32c | 110.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 98.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ed…88a2backed Yes | 30c | 86.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 76c | 84.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd899…8e49backed Yes | 22c | 80.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…a1c4backed No | 75c | 78.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 64.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…1096backed Yes | 23c | 63.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 62.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 58.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 35c | 57.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 66c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 24c | 55.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 54.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 51.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 27c | 48.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 33c | 48.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 37c | 46.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 77c | 44.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 40.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 40.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked No | 72c | 39.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 28c | 38.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 65c | 35.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 71c | 33.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…57bfbacked No | 79c | 30.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 29.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 28.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed No | 70c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…2605backed No | 74c | 26.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 72c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 72c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 74c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 74c | 17.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 77c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c6…fff3backed No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.