Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86aa6000fadd08963d8dcbb0f2cf59c84c9b39e417f37c080d4f9eaf75ca5efb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa268…d3ebbacked Yes | 17c | 742.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 2c | 425.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 67c | 373.61$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 262.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 66c | 203.83$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.57 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 36c | 171.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 158.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 16c | 144.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 67c | 144.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 33c | 131.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 25c | 91.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 16c | 90.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 59c | 88.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 82.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 78.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 33c | 74.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 73.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 59c | 70.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 29c | 64.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 61.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 54.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 43c | 47.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…758ebacked Yes | 43c | 43.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd796…e706backed No | 63c | 25.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 24.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…2aa7backed No | 76c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 59c | 22.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 20.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…dbafbacked No | 66c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 59c | 18.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.