Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86c8b12052beaac0d1745007f417fea9504491826c48a95e8d82e20afaa2ecfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Klim Sani4of Klim Sani4, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked summer bear | 14c | 2,166$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.36 | 893 | 41.5%371 W · 522 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455e…f7f9backed summer bear | 2c | 1,655$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked summer bear | 20c | 1,492$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.5 | 944 | 42.3%399 W · 545 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed summer bear | 13c | 1,230$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.71 | 364 | 52.5%191 W · 173 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed summer bear | 12c | 739.04$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 417 | 39.6%165 W · 252 L | -38.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…852fbacked summer bear | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…5504backed summer bear | 15c | 316.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked summer bear | 5c | 289.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…caa8backed summer bear | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2591…b7c1backed summer bear | 8c | 189.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6552…baa4backed Klim Sani4 | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…f4dabacked summer bear | 17c | 184.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked summer bear | 17c | 171.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…d554backed summer bear | 12c | 159.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…086fbacked summer bear | 16c | 111.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…0d49backed summer bear | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked summer bear | 17c | 96.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 907 | 56.1%509 W · 398 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed summer bear | 14c | 88.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 679 | 32.5%221 W · 458 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked Klim Sani4 | 79c | 37.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs summer bear - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs summer bear (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BKlim Sani4 won
- Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs summer bear - Game 1 WinnerKlim Sani4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.