TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Klim Sani4of Klim Sani4, summer bear
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,098 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x31a4…7afcbacked summer bear25c3,649$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.6395342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Klim Sani479c1,500$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Klim Sani475c1,484$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.861,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Klim Sani475c950$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23450769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed summer bear16c949.96$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14943738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked summer bear27c750.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7146240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Klim Sani470c513.25$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9842639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked summer bear16c435.29$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709145.1%41 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked summer bear22c259.12$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.411,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear23c255.71$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.251,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked summer bear22c232.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.341,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec3…babcbacked summer bear15c170.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3231…6e75backed Klim Sani474c164.72$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.067657.9%44 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77c9…f4dabacked summer bear26c134.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.06742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6204…caa8backed Klim Sani471c130.39$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.392250%11 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Klim Sani480c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2519251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed summer bear14c118.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5319440.7%79 W · 115 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x924d…6cb9backed summer bear18c117.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.97146.5%33 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked summer bear12c102.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0489238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a4a…3da9backed Klim Sani480c96.5$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.31888.9%16 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+46.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x55c6…0d49backed summer bear23c66.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f83…086fbacked summer bear32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2613…3dccbacked Klim Sani474c59.52$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick65cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58f…cec8backed Klim Sani473c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52564%16 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Klim Sani473c30.71$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2910662.3%66 W · 40 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f7c…8b29backed Klim Sani478c28.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2914861.5%91 W · 57 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a00…59e2backed Klim Sani480c27.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.571788.2%15 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+45.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1c2f…2586backed Klim Sani480c13.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.791586.7%13 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+41.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.