Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc08e9d7c257f20600663bf777ec6eb6a10159363302e7fdb683a77dc9685f168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Klim Sani4of Klim Sani4, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked summer bear | 25c | 3,649$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.63 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Klim Sani4 | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Klim Sani4 | 75c | 1,484$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Klim Sani4 | 75c | 950$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed summer bear | 16c | 949.96$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked summer bear | 27c | 750.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Klim Sani4 | 70c | 513.25$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.98 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked summer bear | 16c | 435.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked summer bear | 22c | 259.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear | 23c | 255.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 22c | 232.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…babcbacked summer bear | 15c | 170.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…6e75backed Klim Sani4 | 74c | 164.72$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…f4dabacked summer bear | 26c | 134.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…caa8backed Klim Sani4 | 71c | 130.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed Klim Sani4 | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed summer bear | 14c | 118.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 194 | 40.7%79 W · 115 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…6cb9backed summer bear | 18c | 117.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked summer bear | 12c | 102.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…3da9backed Klim Sani4 | 80c | 96.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…0d49backed summer bear | 23c | 66.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…086fbacked summer bear | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Klim Sani4 | 74c | 59.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Klim Sani4 | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Klim Sani4 | 73c | 30.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 106 | 62.3%66 W · 40 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…8b29backed Klim Sani4 | 78c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 148 | 61.5%91 W · 57 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…59e2backed Klim Sani4 | 80c | 27.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2f…2586backed Klim Sani4 | 80c | 13.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs summer bear - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs summer bear (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BKlim Sani4 won
- Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs summer bear - Game 2 WinnerKlim Sani4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.