Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86cb8fa31d7823a2dd4add4558ee62c74eca37f636ec835e91fe3f0eeb81e5ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdee…6924backed Yes | 42c | 1,801$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8faf…a924backed No | 58c | 1,801$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3d…262abacked Yes | 42c | 1,800$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…2330backed No | 58c | 1,800$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 517.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 399.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 41c | 353.51$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.02 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 258.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.9 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 63c | 237.94$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 8c | 215.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 57c | 209.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 185.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 19c | 171.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 142.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 138.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 136.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ced…574abacked No | 71c | 129.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 114$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 103.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 92.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 86.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 84.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 61c | 81.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 65c | 77.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 34c | 74.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 31c | 72.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 70.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 23c | 67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 64.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 26c | 63.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 54.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 71c | 51.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 50.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…2987backed Yes | 44c | 45.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 45.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 43c | 37.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 42c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbb…2779backed Yes | 55c | 36.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 74c | 35.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 46c | 34.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96fd…2574backed Yes | 46c | 32.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 39c | 31.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 39c | 31.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…53d4backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 72c | 28.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 67c | 26.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 54c | 26.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 26.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 54c | 24.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…6ea2backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 73c | 16.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.