Tennis · resolved market
Metepec: Natan Rodrigues vs Miguel Tobon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x870443560d9f98d87cfb7359320a7a0dcb3da6b4b5cd6f78f42f3b3dbcdbbef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rodriguesof Rodrigues, Tobon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tobon | 1c | 3,767$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Rodrigues | 77c | 987.94$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.95 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Rodrigues | 73c | 707.64$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.86 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Tobon | 21c | 701$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Tobon | 29c | 694.1$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Tobon | 34c | 406.79$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 151 | 17.9%27 W · 124 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tobon | 18c | 287.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Rodrigues | 68c | 251.71$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Tobon | 60c | 242$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rodrigues | 70c | 224.3$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Rodrigues | 75c | 186.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Tobon | 66c | 157$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rodrigues | 68c | 140.59$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5c…a4fcbacked Rodrigues | 27c | 114$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +8.7wins | +0.58per pick | 28cpaid | +215%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tobon | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Tobon | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…965cbacked Tobon | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Tobon | 59c | 40.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.