Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8709b3fa1f50046fd9000df7ade47a09d0c11bea8979270b24b80671f4fc9292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $547,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $551,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $547,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 38c | 527,252$201,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201,465.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Yes | 62c | 345,468$214,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131,277.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 61c | 89,297$54,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,419.22 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 62c | 34,078$20,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,090.49 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 61c | 30,000$18,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,700 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 62c | 20,000$12,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,600 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 61c | 9,120$5,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,579.28 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 43c | 3,367$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.41 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed Yes | 65c | 3,049$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 8c | 1,583$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 62c | 1,116$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.58 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 37c | 999.99$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 39c | 800$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…f19bbacked No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 16c | 451.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 44c | 450$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 62c | 358.34$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 61c | 248.47$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…7becbacked Yes | 61c | 224.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 62c | 169.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 63c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 113.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 40c | 92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 39c | 51.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -14.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked Yes | 62c | 45.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Yes | 58c | 34.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Yes | 66c | 29.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Yes | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will FC Nantes win on 2025-09-13?No won
- Will OGC Nice vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.