Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x873daab23f09c0c61470388c2690bab3128c85616acc278a12038584ac9dbc06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 2,399$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Over | 80c | 1,710$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…9661backed Over | 62c | 740.21$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 21c | 611.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.44 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 20c | 480.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 387.11$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 330.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 253.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 62c | 241.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 79c | 238.08$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 46c | 216.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.89 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 216.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 20c | 136.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 125.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 46c | 89.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 46c | 65.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 63c | 60.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 30c | 50.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Over | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…07bbbacked Over | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…768cbacked Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 46c | 26.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.