Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8aef70a6b12299ccea1c733b24e762d06de7da4492b960f1f0a94145275ee0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 57c | 5,848$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.63 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 3,517$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 1,473$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.87 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…8c66backed Under | 43c | 1,205$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 58c | 781.22$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.11 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 56c | 777.46$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.5 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 43c | 597.3$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.84 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 58c | 514.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.24 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under | 42c | 499.63$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.84 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 305$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.55 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 260.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.39 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…2e5abacked Under | 53c | 259.57$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 53c | 187.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 184.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 42c | 179.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 59c | 171.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 43c | 100.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 89.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 58c | 68.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 60c | 58.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 47c | 57.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 65c | 49.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 48.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…9636backed Under | 43c | 42.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 43c | 40.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd260…b480backed Over | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.