Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x875f6236cd4e47faa7d5d5ed16c16d91c374ee0e604dc23cd6db7edfdaafeb9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 21c | 3,050$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.12 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 79c | 2,204$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.77 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 16c | 2,030$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.54 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 20c | 1,940$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x058d…bbabbacked Yes | 21c | 1,476$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,268$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.04 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 20c | 1,223$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.6 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 20c | 829.92$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 19c | 402.91$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 19c | 356.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 19c | 317.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 20c | 160.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc20c…fdb5backed Yes | 21c | 78.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd620…09c4backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…ec43backed No | 80c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…a538backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will SC Freiburg vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.