Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec6b7069bc3c123dbb6e267ba6d49b1813e4d4d72fcea728fd5c89418f3264d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 17c | 6,474$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.53 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 40c | 3,691$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.05 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 7c | 2,267$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 2,256$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.38 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 33c | 2,100$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 47c | 1,596$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.08 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed No | 14c | 1,400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,067$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.76 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 21c | 994.12$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.26 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 940$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.26 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Yes | 53c | 897.9$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.63 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Yes | 54c | 554.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 54c | 472.22$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.22 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 44c | 453.44$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 319.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 54c | 305.56$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 55c | 273.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.06 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4d…c4bebacked Yes | 54c | 268.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…3470backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 55c | 182.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…6fcebacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked No | 46c | 149.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…5adcbacked Yes | 54c | 145.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 46c | 142$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 14c | 129.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 57c | 117.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…e6a5backed Yes | 54c | 103.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…2d86backed No | 48c | 100.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a45…e3cdbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7823backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 13c | 95.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…1335backed Yes | 53c | 94.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…21f2backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…61cdbacked Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fc…4a59backed Yes | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 47c | 75.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 53c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…92bdbacked Yes | 54c | 56.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb662…375dbacked Yes | 57c | 53.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…1896backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb8…450dbacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…ed5bbacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029d…d68ebacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…49aabacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…bb6fbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1975backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…79aebacked Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…fdedbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8993…222dbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 54c | 33.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cac…d4d7backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…ec43backed Yes | 53c | 27.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…b7e7backed Yes | 58c | 26.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…57d4backed Yes | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef7…ae5cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd811…102dbacked Yes | 54c | 19.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…953abacked Yes | 58c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Yes | 59c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-09?No won
- Will SC Freiburg vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.