MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8769312fcddfd6849bd8ffbc632588c977ade9c35be0571babedafd08de326e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 65c | 8,167$5,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,827.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 3,686$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 25c | 3,092$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.31 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 61c | 688.32$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.34 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 57c | 598.51$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 41c | 429.12$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.65 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 56c | 316$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.33 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Under | 56c | 312.5$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 56c | 246.21$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 110.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 56c | 99.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 63.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 63c | 54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…d911backed Under | 38c | 52.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…f84ebacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 49.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Under | 58c | 43.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 32c | 38.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 57c | 23.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.