MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00da6eaa1492cde2314eac6a0c276302a56ddc4ada520f06284c711bdc1d5869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 21,045$12,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,413.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 12,393$4,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,557.67 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 7,966$3,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,505 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 5,682$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 4,978$2,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 2,096$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals | 20c | 1,944$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.65 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 16c | 1,326$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.74 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 816.65$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.33 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 640.39$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.15 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 613.48$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.71 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 512.76$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 472.31$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 464.55$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 397.07$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 15c | 365.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 295.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 257$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 218.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…e602backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 201.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 195.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 146.6$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 18c | 127.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 112$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 110.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 104.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 20c | 99.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 99.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 93.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…cc50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 86.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 84.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a8…14ccbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 63.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 53.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 51.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2a…4b25backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 24.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 24.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 24.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 23.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.