Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x879370b75c55c69987e08f1e5d365cd366ef59effe0789cb0947abef29cc9c73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 30c | 154.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 62c | 126.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 41c | 117.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed Yes | 44c | 112.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 111.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 109.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed Yes | 41c | 104.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…ae45backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…8fd9backed Yes | 34c | 69.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed No | 65c | 68.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 26c | 54.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 46c | 50.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…dd08backed Yes | 60c | 50.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…7034backed Yes | 41c | 49.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 47.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed No | 40c | 46.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…a108backed Yes | 51c | 40.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…cc4dbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…32a1backed Yes | 37c | 39.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca4…1386backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed No | 66c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…c289backed No | 50c | 28.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…0cbdbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 59c | 23.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…8fe0backed No | 65c | 17.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on January 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -10°C or below on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or higher on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on January 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.