Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x879fb344ddb586276569cee4047bbe8e0e6e89b1a5847ebaf0d995983232044b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 29,412$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.31 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 217.36$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 206.09$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 39c | 200.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 73c | 186.92$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.56 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 53c | 174.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 163.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 162$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 26c | 159.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 142.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 33c | 138.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 136.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 126.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 79c | 125.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 125.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 125$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 123.76$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 32c | 108.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 74c | 105.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 75.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 46c | 75.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 71.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 70c | 66.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 54c | 63.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 61.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 56.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 53.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 31c | 48.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3364…5effbacked Yes | 26c | 48.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 47c | 47.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 47.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 47.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 45.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 32c | 44.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 36.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 31c | 35.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 33.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 79c | 30.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 69c | 25.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 55c | 25.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 60c | 21.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 73c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…3668backed No | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.