Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b0d1cc1aadb95e96b04bd5c2651c41b79f117f0e0692f9d2d029b4f17c6f459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 3c | 836.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 199.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 170.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 68c | 162.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 162$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 156.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 113$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 60c | 108$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 103$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 48c | 102.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 55c | 99.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 53c | 93.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 26c | 92.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 88.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 82.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 13c | 80.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…65a1backed No | 64c | 73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8e…7731backed Yes | 41c | 72.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 43c | 70.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 43c | 69.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 15c | 67.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 65.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7783…84bebacked Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +95%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 50c | 62.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 45c | 56.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfa…1a52backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…2affbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 49.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 33c | 47.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e14…6909backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…3697backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 44.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d66…cba7backed No | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 57c | 40.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 39c | 40.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c6…52a5backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 37.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 55c | 36.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 37c | 35.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes | 42c | 35.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 51c | 33.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 61c | 32.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 32.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 59c | 31.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 31.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 30.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 28.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 46c | 25.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 67c | 25.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 45c | 23.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 54c | 21.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 20.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 59c | 20.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…4f1fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 15.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.