Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87ca73cb3396fd8bd9a28b306765d1a7c397561bab668f794425e4a36ea76908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 27c | 376.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.8 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 9c | 332.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 305$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 193.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed No | 58c | 169.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 44c | 93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 42c | 91.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 65c | 63.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…bc84backed Yes | 72c | 55.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 53.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 50.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…e67fbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…adcebacked Yes | 61c | 35.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 60c | 34.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…461ebacked Yes | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 63c | 30.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 64c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa809…ad85backed Yes | 55c | 21.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa449…9741backed No | 74c | 20.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 62c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…ddf3backed No | 76c | 19.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb038…074bbacked Yes | 76c | 15.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on January 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 63°F or below on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 74°F or higher on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.