NHL · resolved market
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. CSKA Moscow
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87cd0d0b025fc8a6e8f41be6064224eac46966749502dfacce533dd7201e7255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avangard Omskof Avangard Omsk, CSKA Moscow
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed CSKA Moscow | 38c | 241.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc568…ecb7backed Avangard Omsk | 59c | 210$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Avangard Omsk | 60c | 117$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked CSKA Moscow | 37c | 88.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Avangard Omsk | 60c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Avangard Omsk | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Avangard Omsk | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -35%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Avangard Omsk | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Avangard Omsk | 78c | 48.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Avangard Omsk | 63c | 45.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed CSKA Moscow | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Avangard Omsk | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Avangard Omsk | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Avangard Omsk | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Avangard Omsk | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Avangard Omsk | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked CSKA Moscow | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked CSKA Moscow | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Avangard Omsk | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Avangard Omsk | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.