Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x883ad9a130179bc3238af7879c39b1bb92a6db7003abca1bfe0f13bbe0bc917a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Shpilitof AVULUS, Team Shpilit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,017 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Shpilit | 73c | 593.14$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.31 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Shpilit | 32c | 320.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.05 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed AVULUS | 70c | 308.82$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.53 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AVULUS | 11c | 297.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed AVULUS | 24c | 293.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Team Shpilit | 71c | 221.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked AVULUS | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…ed3dbacked AVULUS | 42c | 196.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…999bbacked AVULUS | 76c | 132.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked AVULUS | 16c | 122.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Team Shpilit | 30c | 70.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked AVULUS | 69c | 54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Team Shpilit | 31c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…af48backed AVULUS | 79c | 41.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked AVULUS | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…a434backed Team Shpilit | 75c | 39.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Shpilit | 59c | 39.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed Team Shpilit | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…17b1backed Team Shpilit | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 133 | 31.6%42 W · 91 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked AVULUS | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group ATeam Shpilit won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
- Game Handicap: AVL (-1.5) vs Team Shpilit (+1.5)Team Shpilit won
- Game Handicap: Team Shpilit (-1.5) vs AVULUS (+1.5)AVULUS won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.