Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa600e4283617cb18f5979c5b6c2f05c4d4ed405430597207cf2a135d3d94febc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof AVULUS, Team Shpilit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,508 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Team Shpilit | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 1cpaid | +594.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…66b9backed Team Shpilit | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Team Shpilit | 53c | 2,165$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.3 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Shpilit | 30c | 1,490$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.62 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Shpilit | 35c | 1,454$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.31 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Shpilit | 30c | 1,388$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.71 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe491…ccd1backed AVULUS | 67c | 1,263$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Team Shpilit | 24c | 719.88$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.75 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Team Shpilit | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…efeebacked Team Shpilit | 20c | 644.1$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…d235backed Team Shpilit | 25c | 625.6$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…8a0bbacked AVULUS | 79c | 590.27$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Shpilit | 35c | 575.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked AVULUS | 80c | 550.61$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team Shpilit | 16c | 546$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…50d8backed AVULUS | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Team Shpilit | 37c | 456.23$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.82 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Shpilit | 23c | 416.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Team Shpilit | 24c | 411$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Shpilit | 42c | 375.11$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed AVULUS | 73c | 371.25$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Shpilit | 26c | 339.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Shpilit | 28c | 330.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Shpilit | 50c | 327.91$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.96 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…101cbacked Team Shpilit | 49c | 317.72$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.99 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked AVULUS | 74c | 271.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed AVULUS | 66c | 266.61$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed AVULUS | 56c | 264.08$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Team Shpilit | 25c | 259.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked AVULUS | 61c | 251.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed AVULUS | 50c | 209.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Team Shpilit | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Team Shpilit | 23c | 198.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145e…bb39backed AVULUS | 61c | 189.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Team Shpilit | 19c | 189.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked AVULUS | 50c | 184$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked AVULUS | 62c | 174$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Team Shpilit | 21c | 168.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Team Shpilit | 41c | 156.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4716…a2eabacked Team Shpilit | 9c | 149.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed AVULUS | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked AVULUS | 68c | 145$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…c72abacked Team Shpilit | 18c | 144.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Shpilit | 56c | 139.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…ed3dbacked AVULUS | 69c | 128.29$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Team Shpilit | 55c | 121$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…ebdcbacked Team Shpilit | 29c | 116.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Shpilit | 21c | 115.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked AVULUS | 66c | 111.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Team Shpilit | 12c | 107.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…a434backed AVULUS | 65c | 102.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked AVULUS | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked AVULUS | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed AVULUS | 69c | 92.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Shpilit | 20c | 82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed AVULUS | 58c | 78.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed AVULUS | 68c | 75.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Shpilit | 18c | 74.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…1e82backed Team Shpilit | 34c | 71.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…3ff4backed Team Shpilit | 79c | 66.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee6…0668backed Team Shpilit | 35c | 59.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Team Shpilit | 20c | 55.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed AVULUS | 63c | 55.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked AVULUS | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6d…f901backed Team Shpilit | 37c | 51.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f59…3a50backed AVULUS | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Shpilit | 34c | 40.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed AVULUS | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked AVULUS | 57c | 36.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked AVULUS | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked AVULUS | 52c | 23.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked AVULUS | 52c | 22.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked AVULUS | 59c | 21.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked AVULUS | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed AVULUS | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed AVULUS | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked AVULUS | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group ATeam Shpilit won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Shpilit won
- Game Handicap: AVL (-1.5) vs Team Shpilit (+1.5)Team Shpilit won
- Game Handicap: Team Shpilit (-1.5) vs AVULUS (+1.5)AVULUS won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.