TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Shpilitof AVULUS, Team Shpilit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,343 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Shpilit37c8,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,040.3823653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Shpilit58c7,391$4,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,082.3669235.3%244 W · 448 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed AVULUS1c5,452$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6752243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked AVULUS63c4,592$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.437565.3%49 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked AVULUS42c3,437$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.0536851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked AVULUS55c2,550$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40053451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Shpilit53c2,213$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.382,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked AVULUS44c1,714$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.1632652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0133…64bcbacked Team Shpilit59c1,518$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67cc…942fbacked AVULUS62c1,363$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.993855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked AVULUS61c1,328$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.476349.2%31 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93f8…22babacked AVULUS39c1,285$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed Team Shpilit55c1,250$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.1913655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Shpilit38c1,037$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.3560542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a65…9142backed AVULUS49c999.99$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Shpilit53c982.4$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.0646649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Shpilit61c933.13$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.441,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b9b…c323backed AVULUS63c932$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.163053.3%16 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Team Shpilit53c910.05$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.6760251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked AVULUS54c883.5$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.383935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed AVULUS53c874.35$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4611361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Shpilit46c868.99$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.8734044.4%151 W · 189 L+0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1986…a434backed AVULUS53c839.31$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.05742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed AVULUS60c834.3$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.2611847.5%56 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Team Shpilit43c807.68$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.249837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked AVULUS70c746.54$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.8311839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked AVULUS40c686.8$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.7218745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bd…4c63backed AVULUS40c671$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed AVULUS41c645.19$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.726351%134 W · 129 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed AVULUS64c629.76$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.0248352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc711…9c9cbacked Team Shpilit32c539.54$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.861145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Shpilit50c536.88$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.8872035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed AVULUS50c535$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.52250%11 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b8…50d8backed AVULUS53c500$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2663943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed AVULUS68c467.48$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Team Shpilit49c457.28$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.9312654.8%69 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked AVULUS54c455.74$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.5616440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…fb00backed AVULUS45c439.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc758…f2f9backed Team Shpilit41c428$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.52650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Team Shpilit49c380$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.225147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41bb…6302backed AVULUS60c370$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked AVULUS33c363.64$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6512568%85 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Team Shpilit55c362$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16211648.3%56 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Shpilit40c351.39$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.721,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x739d…999bbacked Team Shpilit57c349.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.991258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked AVULUS53c338.34$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3469552.2%363 W · 332 L+45.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AVULUS51c301.08$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.372,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9c…ca4fbacked Team Shpilit51c301$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.49862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+56.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47fd…da1abacked AVULUS5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1460%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed AVULUS48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14465441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Team Shpilit35c299.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.9920838.9%81 W · 127 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd2…16c9backed Team Shpilit52c289$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.72450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ac…e813backed AVULUS59c285$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Team Shpilit27c283.88$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.9113854.3%75 W · 63 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ac…f6b4backed AVULUS48c278.38$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.038229.3%24 W · 58 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed AVULUS59c270$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.31346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Team Shpilit53c264.15$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1518444.6%82 W · 102 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x126a…2e3ebacked AVULUS48c255.1$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.441668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked AVULUS60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15042145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed AVULUS61c240.74$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.54264.3%27 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18d…9c5bbacked Team Shpilit52c231.18$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.613976.9%30 W · 9 L+6.7wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Team Shpilit33c228.07$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.778155.6%45 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7612…b680backed AVULUS63c225$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.75887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+83.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x021a…59bcbacked AVULUS40c222.5$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…4fa3backed Team Shpilit46c205.69$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.073151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc38…bfd8backed AVULUS48c202.08$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed AVULUS50c200.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Team Shpilit51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9819251.6%99 W · 93 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb79…6274backed AVULUS75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017152%89 W · 82 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed AVULUS63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12696942.8%415 W · 554 L-19.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x819c…15b6backed Team Shpilit47c199$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.472100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Shpilit50c198.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2136654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Team Shpilit45c196.49$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1631736%114 W · 203 L-18.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Team Shpilit53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.685639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked AVULUS65c187$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5522954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Team Shpilit39c186.77$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9818739%73 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x974a…98c3backed AVULUS51c184$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.843542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed AVULUS59c183.05$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10815145%68 W · 83 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bff…267ebacked Team Shpilit43c183$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.951361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed AVULUS59c180$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.27546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13af…b19fbacked AVULUS49c179.67$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.586460.9%39 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70e7…c04dbacked Team Shpilit50c173$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+227.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed AVULUS30c167.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.713138.7%12 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+30.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed AVULUS60c162.92$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7534561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2baf…12d7backed Team Shpilit61c162.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf82c…0f6fbacked AVULUS63c162.52$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.351050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed AVULUS59c159.71$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4771142.6%303 W · 408 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e8…6d77backed Team Shpilit52c155$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabab…8b3ebacked AVULUS49c152$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-77%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b3…437abacked AVULUS49c148$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+270.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8931…db86backed AVULUS50c146$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e0…8eb7backed AVULUS48c144$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-76.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9637…9785backed AVULUS59c143$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Team Shpilit40c135$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8111841.5%49 W · 69 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf13…ed3dbacked AVULUS63c132.12$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Team Shpilit40c132.11$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2725348.6%123 W · 130 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Team Shpilit42c125.33$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.085318.9%10 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed Team Shpilit41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.955334%18 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad06…b132backed Team Shpilit41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.22657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd5…11bbbacked Team Shpilit42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.053531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.