Tennis · resolved market
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x885b171eb1a7f0ee83996761c032e8f5272459dbe36bdd87f6a6d4e493badfba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dayeon Backof Dayeon Back, Naho Sato
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc92…649dbacked Naho Sato | 12c | 3,963$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.26 | 91 | 18.7%17 W · 74 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Dayeon Back | 78c | 2,560$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.74 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Naho Sato | 23c | 1,981$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.68 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Naho Sato | 18c | 1,369$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ef…82b8backed Naho Sato | 17c | 549.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…df57backed Naho Sato | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Naho Sato | 16c | 237.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…ba88backed Naho Sato | 16c | 225$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Naho Sato | 11c | 201$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Naho Sato | 16c | 189.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5f…c343backed Naho Sato | 18c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Naho Sato | 18c | 144.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Dayeon Back | 72c | 139.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…06d4backed Naho Sato | 13c | 130.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Naho Sato | 28c | 124.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…a8aabacked Naho Sato | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…0a0bbacked Naho Sato | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…29a8backed Naho Sato | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…ccffbacked Naho Sato | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…1542backed Dayeon Back | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…6af1backed Naho Sato | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…b7abbacked Naho Sato | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…c971backed Naho Sato | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Dayeon Back | 65c | 73.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 486 | 50.6%246 W · 240 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…8a6ebacked Dayeon Back | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 417 | 68.1%284 W · 133 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.