Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8873faff4818cd982e783ad5d92d34725a10cc736aeeabec2ad5a12fc91e074e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Under | 10c | 3,975$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 80c | 502.38$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 80c | 463.28$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 13c | 321.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…0687backed Over | 80c | 313.1$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 19c | 312.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Under | 11c | 270.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 19c | 179.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Over | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 75c | 125.79$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Over | 80c | 103.48$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Brisbane Roar FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-2.5)Brisbane Roar FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.