Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x083d363764e5274136668799b23545f67cf7cbde6d790843e9e442dbedaa9b98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 19c | 1,707$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.75 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 68c | 1,386$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 20c | 1,041$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 33c | 900.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.73 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 841.7$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.75 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 78c | 647.67$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.49 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 17c | 258.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 10c | 236.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 150.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 36c | 139.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 13c | 135.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 24c | 129.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 16c | 119.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…0687backed Over | 32c | 97.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 16c | 88.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 15c | 70.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec9…b76bbacked Under | 74c | 64.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…8c3ebacked Over | 17c | 62.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…b7cabacked Under | 22c | 54.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…a708backed Over | 33c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 45.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Under | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Brisbane Roar FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-2.5)Brisbane Roar FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.