TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Australian A League · resolved market

Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,494 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed Over19c1,707$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.7546644.8%209 W · 257 L-23.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde19…e90dbacked Under68c1,386$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over17c1,176$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003616.7%6 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over20c1,041$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2078129.6%24 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over33c900.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.735925.4%15 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under76c841.7$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.7598844.4%439 W · 549 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Under78c647.67$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.498327.7%23 W · 60 L-10.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over17c258.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410839.8%43 W · 65 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over17c250$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.58625.6%22 W · 64 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over10c236.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5530954.7%169 W · 140 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over19c150.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2234937.8%132 W · 217 L-13.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed Over36c139.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504546.7%21 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.896746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over13c135.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.157254.2%39 W · 33 L+9.2wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over24c129.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4215140.4%61 W · 90 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over16c119.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0513243.2%57 W · 75 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc219…0687backed Over32c97.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.22560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over16c88.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3811940.3%48 W · 71 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over15c70.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5410837%40 W · 68 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec9…b76bbacked Under74c64.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.85955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e9…8c3ebacked Over17c62.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f354backed Under69c55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.31844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc26c…b7cabacked Under22c54.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.39650%3 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+197.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd347…a708backed Over33c53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010633%35 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under68c45.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4247850.8%243 W · 235 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under65c42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7414951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d46…26d8backed Under67c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.552080%16 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under70c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.711858.5%69 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.