Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fa84f6d76febe0dfa38b6589311b0930e860aea100ca67d1c5a77fce058d85c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 1,027$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.95 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Under | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 52c | 810$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 34c | 750.06$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.04 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 20c | 724$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.2 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 46c | 695$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.74 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 572.4$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.48 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…cdb3backed Under | 65c | 492.85$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 36c | 472.22$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 44cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 458.2$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.02 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 58c | 409.54$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 61c | 392.66$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.52 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 383.25$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.08 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…47a4backed Under | 68c | 379.56$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 35c | 291.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.43 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…fd44backed Over | 60c | 256.67$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…6796backed Under | 51c | 237.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 16c | 215.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 62c | 208.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 79c | 201.92$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.52 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 49c | 200.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 66c | 180$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 69c | 171$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 31c | 171$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 147.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 64c | 129.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Over | 25c | 126.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 66c | 120$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Over | 51c | 107.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 54c | 101.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…0687backed Over | 59c | 98.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 32c | 93.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec9…b76bbacked Under | 63c | 91.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 52c | 89.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 63c | 86.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…d76fbacked Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…aac5backed Over | 61c | 77.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 69c | 77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 34c | 66.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…b729backed Over | 41c | 63.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 79c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 46c | 58.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…49e1backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Over | 42c | 35.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba84…363abacked Over | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 60c | 28.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 71c | 26.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 41c | 24.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5)Brisbane Roar FC won
- Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-2.5)Brisbane Roar FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.