Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x887a108aec3b53fda5c7672727e199344449ce9a5405cb5d6a7f368517506b11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1b5…60d5backed Yes | 8c | 7,115$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,537$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 0c | 2,703$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 11c | 1,640$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…71a0backed Yes | 5c | 1,154$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…e198backed Yes | 15c | 771.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 9c | 741.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 626.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 13c | 546.12$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 16c | 510.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…d88dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 79c | 366.62$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 13c | 330.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…bed8backed Yes | 9c | 273.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 6c | 254.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 227.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 18c | 224.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 222.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 17c | 171.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 20c | 165.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 13c | 155.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed Yes | 20c | 153.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…1432backed Yes | 14c | 146.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked Yes | 14c | 142.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…6f86backed No | 77c | 128.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 20c | 128$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…fb85backed Yes | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb5…f3d9backed Yes | 20c | 112.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 111.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 16c | 98.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1a…f585backed Yes | 23c | 97.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…12debacked Yes | 21c | 95.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked Yes | 22c | 92.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 17c | 81.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa280…4557backed Yes | 15c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…ba5cbacked Yes | 19c | 71.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f27…71f1backed Yes | 19c | 71.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 18c | 61.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked Yes | 18c | 60.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…57c7backed Yes | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2033…7a6cbacked Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…d852backed Yes | 22c | 50.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Yes | 30c | 35.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…5a8bbacked No | 76c | 31.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C or higher on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.