Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a32bdec80bc0afedcaa3a6a2c59d2d5f82a2d008d778563e3133c4bafb27c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 2,295$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.98 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 53c | 2,131$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.94 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 919.82$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 53c | 678.55$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.88 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 80c | 409.33$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…062fbacked Yes | 38c | 225.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 23c | 171.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 22c | 139.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.34 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 124.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 15c | 118.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 106.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked No | 68c | 103.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 31c | 99.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 95.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 38c | 93.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 33c | 84.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 37c | 81.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…4e85backed Yes | 51c | 80.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 18c | 79.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 76.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 30c | 71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 67.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb5…f3d9backed Yes | 20c | 64.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 62.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…04b8backed No | 80c | 62.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 74c | 60.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 69c | 58.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 46c | 41.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 50c | 34.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…f89dbacked Yes | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 78c | 32.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 44c | 32.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…dd08backed Yes | 54c | 32.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…ceb2backed Yes | 48c | 31.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d9…c1c0backed Yes | 35c | 30.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 42c | 30.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…e76ebacked No | 74c | 29.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 25.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc46a…f2e0backed No | 77c | 25.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b3…8d9bbacked No | 80c | 25.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 75c | 24.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1a…f585backed Yes | 58c | 17.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…998abacked Yes | 76c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x143e…2ddebacked Yes | 75c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C or higher on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.