Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88a6439728c63f8added53b8c39b23e544a11bff61fbddbc0340190a9d952855
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Minaur, Svajda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Minaur | 74c | 4,887$3,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.57 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Svajda | 26c | 3,492$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.89 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Svajda | 27c | 1,374$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.11 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Svajda | 29c | 1,310$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.89 | 124 | 44.4%55 W · 69 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Minaur | 71c | 1,122$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.78 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Svajda | 25c | 654.96$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.74 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Svajda | 28c | 599.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Minaur | 72c | 545.94$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.78 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307a…d612backed Minaur | 74c | 499.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Minaur | 75c | 395.83$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.96 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Svajda | 26c | 323.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Svajda | 28c | 297.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Minaur | 75c | 259.13$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Minaur | 71c | 225.35$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…c3a9backed Minaur | 73c | 201.09$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Minaur | 71c | 183.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Svajda | 26c | 149$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Svajda | 28c | 130.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Minaur | 72c | 116.87$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Svajda | 26c | 113.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Minaur | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Svajda | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Minaur | 72c | 50.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Svajda | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1a93backed Svajda | 30c | 49.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Minaur | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Minaur | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 217 | 59.4%129 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5)this page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Minaur vs. Svajda: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs SvajdaMinaur won
- Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs SvajdaSvajda won
- Set 3 Winner: Minaur vs SvajdaMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5)Svajda won
- Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Zachary SvajdaAlex de Minaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.