Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x955737abc56ec099459616e792abf3ddc2c4bdbdad1726a86c43562a6fad9d02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Svajdaof Minaur, Svajda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Minaur | 52c | 10,000$5,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,223.1 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Svajda | 48c | 4,000$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…b60bbacked Svajda | 59c | 3,402$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.69 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Minaur | 41c | 2,756$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.94 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…21cdbacked Svajda | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.49 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…61fdbacked Svajda | 47c | 1,493$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Svajda | 44c | 929.65$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.72 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Svajda | 54c | 792.53$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.7 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Svajda | 39c | 777.92$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.19 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Svajda | 49c | 767.15$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.16 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Svajda | 51c | 596.33$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.15 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Svajda | 48c | 577.71$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.12 | 248 | 56.9%141 W · 107 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Minaur | 50c | 571$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.5 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Minaur | 42c | 513.23$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.55 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Minaur | 55c | 464.62$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.52 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…732ebacked Svajda | 48c | 401.44$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.75 | 345 | 55.1%190 W · 155 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Minaur | 56c | 361.29$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Minaur | 52c | 349.52$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Svajda | 47c | 323.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.57 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Svajda | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Minaur | 75c | 251.37$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.53 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…b1e1backed Minaur | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…d1b4backed Minaur | 64c | 248.29$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.07 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Minaur | 63c | 198.93$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Minaur | 56c | 166.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Svajda | 50c | 153.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…6137backed Minaur | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa8…2bd9backed Svajda | 47c | 147.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Minaur | 55c | 136.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Minaur | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Minaur | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Minaur | 45c | 109.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Minaur | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Svajda | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Minaur | 56c | 89.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…43b2backed Minaur | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Svajda | 46c | 79.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Svajda | 50c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Svajda | 32c | 69.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 263 | 55.1%145 W · 118 L | +36.9wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…63c2backed Svajda | 46c | 67.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3e…df5dbacked Svajda | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Minaur | 67c | 61.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Minaur | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Svajda | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Minaur | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Svajda | 49c | 58.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Minaur | 68c | 51.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Svajda | 55c | 48.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Minaur | 60c | 44.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Svajda | 54c | 43.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Minaur | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7884…1fb0backed Minaur | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Svajda | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Minaur | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Minaur | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Minaur | 56c | 37.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Minaur | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Svajda | 54c | 29.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Minaur | 44c | 29.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd1…b918backed Svajda | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…755dbacked Minaur | 65c | 25.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Svajda | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Svajda | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5)this page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Minaur vs. Svajda: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs SvajdaMinaur won
- Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs SvajdaSvajda won
- Set 3 Winner: Minaur vs SvajdaMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5)Minaur won
- Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Zachary SvajdaAlex de Minaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.