South American Leagues · resolved market
Recoleta FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88c403e03e9aa1d5a5a16884346063607f5c5d11618877e475fbf19dfdbcf856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Under | 41c | 40,000$16,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,400 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 37,050$21,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,190.26 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0d…57abbacked Over | 58c | 18,046$10,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,579.44 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd9…1ef0backed Over | 63c | 16,736$10,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,191.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 37c | 16,208$5,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,996.85 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 42c | 14,478$6,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,080.74 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 59c | 1,951$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.83 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 370.59$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 42c | 114.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Over | 64c | 96.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 42c | 89.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked Under | 42c | 77.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 36c | 69.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 42c | 68.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…acafbacked Under | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 36c | 56.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 35c | 44.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 42c | 35.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 77c | 35.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 36c | 32.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 34c | 32.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 63c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 36c | 29.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…686ebacked Over | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…e568backed Over | 63c | 20.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Recoleta FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5this page
- Recoleta FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 2.5Under won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 3.5Under won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)Recoleta FC won
- Spread: Recoleta FC (-1.5)CA San Lorenzo de Almagro won
- Spread: Recoleta FC (-2.5)CA San Lorenzo de Almagro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.