South American Leagues · resolved market
Recoleta FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aef31e5224a0950a0d4eeb6e11b2ef9ed2244bd861cc40b6c95bf7833e83a8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 35c | 1,958$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.84 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 33c | 991.1$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.06 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 75c | 898.72$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under | 46c | 616.85$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 563.6$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.28 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Under | 80c | 486.12$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 372.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 11c | 358.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 80c | 329$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428c…c64fbacked Under | 80c | 301.6$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 76c | 272$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 16c | 259.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 76c | 190$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…8e52backed Under | 53c | 182.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 21c | 144$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Over | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 20c | 72.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed Over | 32c | 39.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 42c | 34.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 52c | 24.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 71c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Under | 73c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Recoleta FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 3.5this page
- Recoleta FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5Over won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 2.5Under won
- Recoleta FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)Recoleta FC won
- Spread: Recoleta FC (-1.5)CA San Lorenzo de Almagro won
- Spread: Recoleta FC (-2.5)CA San Lorenzo de Almagro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.